Web Survey Bibliography
Title Forecasting proportional representation elections from non-representative expectation surveys
Author Graefe, A.
Source Electoral Studies, 42, pp. 222-228
Year 2016
Access date 11.04.2016
Abstract This study tests non-representative expectation surveys as a method for forecasting elections. For dichotomous forecasts of the 2013 German election (e.g., who will be chancellor, which parties will enter parliament), two non-representative citizen samples performed equally well than a benchmark group of experts. For vote-share forecasts, the sample of more knowledgeable and interested citizens performed similar to experts and quantitative models, and outperformed the less informed citizens. Furthermore, both citizen samples outperformed prediction markets but provided less accurate forecasts than representative polls. The results suggest that non-representative surveys can provide a useful low-cost forecasting method, in particular for small-scale elections, where it may not be feasible or cost-effective to use established methods such as representative polls or prediction markets.
Access/Direct link ScienceDirect (Abstract) / (Full text)
Year of publication2016
Bibliographic typeJournal article
Web survey bibliography - Measurement (1822)
- Forecasting proportional representation elections from non-representative expectation surveys; 2016; Graefe, A.
- Short and Sweet? Length and Informative Content of Open-Ended Responses Using SMS as a Research Mode; 2016; Walsh, E.; Brinker, J. K.
- Adaptive survey designs to minimize survey mode effects – a case study on the Dutch Labor Force...; 2016; Calinescu, M.; Schouten, B.
- Mixing modes of data collection in Swiss social surveys: Methodological report of the LIVES-FORS mixed...; 2016; Roberts, C.; Joye, D.; Staehli, M. E.
- What is the gain in a probability-based online panel to provide Internet access to sampling units that...; 2016; Revilla, M.; Cornilleau, A.; Cousteaux, A-S.; Legleye, S; de Pedraza, P.
- Assessing targeted approach letters: effects in different modes on response rates, response speed and...; 2016; Lynn, P.
- New Generation of Online Questionnaires?; 2016; Revilla, M.; Ochoa, C.; Turbina, A.
- The Analysis of Respondent’s Behavior toward Edit Messages in a Web Survey; 2016; Park, Y.
- Comparing online and telephone survey results in the context of a skin cancer prevention campaign evaluation...; 2016; Hollier, L.P.; Pettigrew, S.; Slevin, T.; Strickland, M.; Minto, C.
- Evaluating Online Labor Markets for Experimental Research: Amazon.com's Mechanical Turk; 2016; Berinsky, A.; Huber, G. A.; Lenz, G. S.
- Setting Up an Online Panel Representative of the General Population The German Internet Panel; 2016; Blom, A. G.; Gathmann, C.; Krieger, U.
- Report of the Inquiry into the 2015 British general election opinion polls; 2016; Sturgis, P., Baker, N., Callegaro, M., Fisher, St., Green, J., Jennings, W., Kuha, J., Lauderdale, B...
- Effects of Data Collection Mode and Response Entry Device on Survey Response Quality; 2016; Ha, L.; Zhang, Che.; Jiang, W.
- The Dynamic Identity Fusion Index: A New Continuous Measure of Identity Fusion for Web-Based Questionnaires...; 2016; Jimenez, J.; Gomez, A.; Buhrmester, M.; Whitehouse, H.; Swann, W. B.
- Recommended Practices for the design of business surveys questionnaires; 2016; Macchia, S.
- Web-based versus Paper-based Survey Data: An Estimation of Road Users’ Value of Travel Time Savings...; 2016; Kato, H.; Sakashita, A.; Tsuchiya, Tak.
- Respondents of a follow-up web-based survey; 2016; Stoddard, S. A.; Amparo, P.; Popick, H.; Yudd, R.; Sujeer, A.; Baath, M.
- An Examination of Opposing Responses on Duplicated Multi-Mode Survey Responses; 2016; Djangali, A.
- Reducing Underreports of Behaviors in Retrospective Surveys: The Effects of Three Different Strategies...; 2016; Lugtig, P. J.; Glasner, T.; Boeve, A.
- Participant recruitment and data collection through Facebook: the role of personality factors; 2016; Rife, S. C.; Cate, K. L.; Kosinski, M.; Stillwell, D.
- Quantifying Under- and Overreporting in Surveys Through a Dual-Questioning-Technique Design. ; 2016; de Jong , M.; Fox, J.-P.; Steenkamp, J. - B. E. M.
- The use and positioning of clarification features in web surveys; 2016; Metzler, A., Kunz, T., Fuchs, M.
- Online Surveys are Mixed-Device Surveys. Issues Associated with the Use of Different (Mobile) Devices...; 2016; Toepoel, V.; Lugtig, P. J.
- Electronic and paper based data collection methods in library and information science research: A comparative...; 2016; Tella, A.
- A Technical Guide to Effective and Accessible web Surveys; 2016; Baatard, G.
- The Validity of Surveys: Online and Offline; 2016; Wiersma, W.
- Methods can matter: Where Web surveys produce different results than phone interviews; 2016; Keeter, S.
- Computer-assisted and online data collection in general population surveys; 2016; Skarupova, K.
- Sunday shopping – The case of three surveys; 2016; Bethlehem, J.
- Creation and Usability Testing of a Web-Based Pre-Scanning Radiology Patient Safety and History Questionnaire...; 2016; Robinson, T. J.; DuVall, S.; Wiggins III, R
- Comprehension and engagement in survey interviews with virtual agents; 2016; Conrad, F. G.; Schober, M. F.; Jans, M.; Orlowski, R. A.; Nielsen, D.; Levenstein, R. M.
- Improving social media measurement in surveys: Avoiding acquiescence bias in Facebook research; 2016; Kuru, O.; Pasek, J.
- Psychological research in the internet age: The quality of web-based data; 2016; Ramsey, S. R.; Thompson, K. L.; McKenzie, M.; Rosenbaum, A.
- Moderators of Candidate Name-Order Effects in Elections: An Experiment; 2016; Kim, Nu.; Krosnick, J. A.; Casasanto, D.
- Measuring Generalized Trust: An Examination of Question Wording and the Number of Scale Points; 2016; Lundmark, S.; Giljam, M.; Dahlberg, S.
- Equivalence of paper-and-pencil and computerized self-report surveys in older adults; 2016; Weigold, A.; Weigold, I. K.; Drakeford, M. K.; Dykema, S. A.; Smith, C. A.
- Quality of Different Scales in an Online Survey in Mexico and Colombia; 2016; Revilla, M.; Ochoa, C.
- A multi-group analysis of online survey respondent data quality: Comparing a regular USA consumer panel...; 2016; Golden, L.; Albaum, G.; Roster, C. A.; Smith, S. M.
- Does the Inclusion of Non-Internet Households in a Web Panel Reduce Coverage Bias?; 2016; Eckman, S.
- Investigating respondent multitasking in web surveys using paradata; 2016; Sendelbah, A.; Vehovar, V.; Slavec, A.; Petrovcic, A.
- Respondent Conditioning in Online Panel Surveys: Results of Two Field Experiments; 2016; Struminskaya, B.
- Swapping bricks for clicks: Crowdsourcing longitudinal data on Amazon Turk; 2016; Daly, T. M.; Nataraajan, R.
- A reliability analysis of Mechanical Turk data; 2016; Rouse, S. V.
- Quota Controls in Survey Research.; 2016; Gittelman, S. H.; Thomas, R. K.; Lavrakas, P. J.; Lange, V.
- Presentation matters: how mode effects in item non-response depend on the presentation of response options...; 2016; Zeglovits, E.; Schwarzer, S.
- Internet-administered Health-related Quality of Life Questionnaires Compared With Pen and Paper in an...; 2016; Nitikman, M.; Mulpuri, K.; Reilly, C. W.
- Scientific Surveys Based on Incomplete Sampling Frames and High Rates of Nonresponse; 2016; Fahimi, M.; Barlas, F. M.; Thomas, R. K.; Buttermore, N. R.
- Doing Surveys Online ; 2016; Toepoel, V.
- Exploring Factors in Contributing Student Progress in the Open University; 2016; Arifin, M. H.
- Are Fast Responses More Random? Testing the Effect of Response Time on Scale in an Online Choice Experiment...; 2015; Boerger, T.